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Macy’s and Lululemon Issue Weaker Outlooks + Caleres, Genesco and Other Footwear Forecasts Ahead of ICR

Major footwear brands are announcing updated sales and earnings expectations ahead of and during their presentations at the 25th annual ICR conference, which begins today and runs through Wednesday.

Boot Barn, Genesco, Macy’s, Lululemon and Caleres have offered updated guidance or have pre-announced recent sales results and expectations for Q4. In some cases, companies are posting results in line with their expectations while other brands have provided weaker guidance for the remainder of the year, as inflation and inventory excesses take a hit to margins.

Crocs, The House of LR&C, On and Wolverine Worldwide are also presenting at the conference and have yet to offer projections regarding their financial performances.

Macy’s on Friday said that holiday sales would come in at the low end of its previously issued guidance, in part due to slower than expected sales during non-peak holiday weeks. CEO Jeff Gennette said in a statement that he expects the challenging environment to persist through the year.

“Based on current macro-economic indicators and our proprietary credit card data, we believe the consumer will continue to be pressured in 2023, particularly in the first half, and have planned inventory mix and depth of initial buys accordingly,” he said.

Lululemon on Monday also issued a disappointing update to its fourth quarter outlook at the ICR conference and expects to see a hit to profits as the company implements discounting measures to clear through excess inventory and unfavorable foreign exchange rates impacting the brand’s growth overseas.

Lululemon CEO Calvin McDonald said the company continues to operate in a “dynamic macro-backdrop” though he added that traffic in digital and stores was strong throughout the fourth quarter.

Also on Monday, Caleres reaffirmed its guidance for fiscal year 2022, though Genesco, which said Q4 comparable sales grew 3% year over year, lowered its full-year guidance. The owner of Schuh, Journeys and Johnston & Murphy said it expects full year EPS to come in at the low end of its previously projected range of $5.50 to $5.90, as opposed to its previously projected midpoint target.

On the other hand, Boot Barn offered a more positive projection. In its preliminary announcement on Friday, the boot retailer said Q3 sales landed in the high end of its guidance, despite headwinds in the quarter. Still, merchandise margin declined 190 basis points compared to the prior-year period, driven primarily by headwinds from higher freight costs. The company did not provide guidance for Q4.

“As we enter 2023, we feel great about the new store pipeline, our current inventory levels, and the overall tone of the business,” Boot Barn CEO Jim Conroy said in a statement. “With store productivity levels continuing to far exceed pre-pandemic levels, combined with the significant opportunity to increase our current store footprint, we believe the future prospects for Boot Barn are extremely bright.”

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