As global markets and international firms continue weigh the long-term and short-term implications of Britain’s exit (Brexit) from the European Union, analysts are highlighting a number of companies that could feel the biggest impact.
In the near term, experts say, the largest effects on footwear and apparel firms will be related to market turbulence, currency shifts and consumer confidence/retail spending.
Still, the impact of FX headwinds and tourism declines coupled with pressures on revenue for companies with exposure to the U.K. could also take on long-term consequences, analysts caution.
Since Britain has two years to negotiate the terms of its exit from the EU, the next 24 months could be rife with tension and uncertainty.
Shoe firms with a large share of U.K.-generated sales are expected to shoulder the biggest losses as currencies shift in a tumultuous market.
Among the footwear players generating significant revenues in the U.K. are: Deckers Brands at 10 percent; VF Corp at 5 percent; Nike at 5 percent; Skechers USA Inc. at 5 percent; and Ralph Lauren Corp. at 5 percent, according to Citi Research analyst Kate McShane. (Percent of total revenues.)
Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP analyst Christopher Svezia also rounded up a similar list of shoe firms.
“We estimate Skeckers, Foot Locker, Nike, VF Corp. and Ralph Lauren as the top five most exposed [in our coverage area] to the euro and GBP [the British pound],” Svezia wrote Tuesday. “That said, Genesco Inc. is being dragged down the most given a large UK business against a volatile GBP [1.3 percent sales pressure at current levels].”
Not to mention, the strong U.S. dollar had already taken a toll on a number of the same companies — Deckers, Ralph Lauren and V.F. Corp. in particular — during the past year.
“While none of these companies are assuming a big tourism improvement in their outlooks [if at all], we feel a continued USD appreciation could prolong a downward trend,” Svezia noted.