The 4 Biggest Predictions About Holiday Shopping

The 4 Biggest Predictions About Holiday
Shoppers on Black Friday in New York.
FN Archives.

As has been the case in years past, a whole lot of greenbacks will change hands this holiday season.

According to the National Retail Federation, total expected retail sales in November and December — excluding autos, gas and restaurant sales — are estimated to land at $631 billion, representing approximately 19 percent of the retail industry’s annual sales of $3.2 trillion.

Who is getting the largest chunk of those billions of dollars floating around the marketplace this holiday season? And what channel will consumers utilize to shell out their disposable income this year?

Here are four business predictions to know now.

How Much Will They Spend?

$619 is the average amount U.S. consumers expect to spend this holiday, a $32 rise over last year.

What Will They Buy?

Categories where shoppers plan to spend: clothing and accessories, 63 percent; entertainment, 45 percent; toys, 35 percent; technology and electronics, 28 percent.

How Brick-And-Mortar & Online Shopping Work Together

While headlines continue to note that shoppers are moving online — it does top the list of holiday retail destinations, at 45 percent — research suggests that brick-and-mortar stores will remain a critical component. About 69 percent of shoppers plan to look at items online first, then go to a store to see the item before completing a purchase. More than half (52 percent) say they will go to a store first to look at an item, then search online for the best price before completing a purchase.

Understanding Customer Loyalty

Shoppers expect 75 percent of their total shopping to occur in stores or on sites they have visited before.


(Sources: The NPD Group & Deloitte)


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