Earnings Preview: Nike’s Key Numbers to Know

Nike Swoosh logo
The swoosh logo on a Nike factory in Florida.
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Nike Inc.’s share price has remained slightly down one day ahead of the firm’s Q4 earnings release. The minor dip in stock today isn’t causing much of a stir and there are other numbers that might be more meaningful on the firm’s Q4 leadup.

As the footwear industry awaits financial results from its athletic shoe leader, here are several important figures and expectations that you should know.

Average Forecasts

For the Beaverton, Ore.-based athletic footwear and apparel company, analysts polled by Yahoo Finance predict earnings per share of 83 cents—the lowest estimate being 77 cents and the highest being 88 cents. Revenues are estimated at $7.7 billion—the lowest estimate is $7.5 billion while the highest is $7.9 billion. All estimates, on average, predict gains against last year’s same quarter sales of $7.4 billion.

Most Recent Quarter’s Key Numbers

Nike’s profits in Q3 increased 16 percent, to $791 million, or 89 cents per diluted share, compared with the year-ago quarter’s $682 million, or 75 cents per diluted share. Sales rose 7 percent (13 percent excluding currency changes), to $7.5 billion, compared with $7 billion in 2014’s Q3.

Comparable Quarter’s Key Numbers

In the comparable quarter, the fourth quarter of 2014, Nike’s revenues was $7.4 billion, or 78 cents per share and its net income was up 5 percent to $698 million.

Analyst Breakdown Their Predictions

“For 4Q15, we are forecasting revenue growth of 2.8 percent to $7.6 billion, including an 800−900bps hit from FX. We expect growth to pick up in North America as product flow normalizes after WC port delays and new innovation drives improvement in core running footwear. In China, we expect 10 percent growth to help the region surpass $3 billion in full-year revenues as the company successfully transitions from a ‘market reset’ strategy to a ‘new normal.” In Western Europe, we expect solid underlying demand to be offset in part by a weaker euro, while challenges in Brazil and Mexico pressure EM results.” –Robert Drbul, Normura Securities International Inc. analyst

“We are raising our 4Q15 EPS estimate from 78 cents to 80 cents versus 78 cents [last year] due to change in the currency impact. We are forecasting reported revenue to increase 5.9 percent (11.7 percent FX-neutral) versus 10.9 percent in 4Q14 (11 percent FX-neutral).” – Sam Poser, Sterne Agee CRT analyst

“For 4Q, we look for reported sales growth of 2.9 percent (10 percent [currency neutral]) and 10-12 percent currency-neutral futures given gains on pricing and market share. By geography, look for North America to accelerate, China/Europe to remain strong and Emerging Markets to potentially slow due to lower futures last quarter. We believe FY16 guidance [will be reiterated] as currency remains stable against a likely strong start to the year.” –Christopher Svezia, Susquehanna Financial LLLP analyst